Volatility in US Treasury prices has been building for the past six months or so as measured by the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch Move Index. That is not all that surprising given the magnifying effect even small interest rate movements have on Treasury prices in today’s low rate environment. The challenge investors face is that bonds, particularly longer-dated issues, offer anemic income streams and the likelihood of principal erosion as rates rise to more normal levels. We continue to maintain lower duration within fixed income allocations than our benchmark because we believe that the long end of the yield curve, here and abroad, offers little investment merit and the potential for a great deal of volatility.
