Category: Jobs and Employment (Page 3 of 3)

WCM Chart of the Week for April 10, 2020

Over the past week we have witnessed encouraging signs in US equities as the three main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite have come off of their recent lows on March 23 and are making higher highs and higher lows – a key bullish technical pattern.  We are optimistic about US stocks but also understand that we are quite far from containing this health crisis and the recovery in our capital markets remains fragile.

The rout that began in earnest late February has arguably been exacerbated by State and Federal government-led virus containment efforts — business, school, recreational closures as well as encouraging social distancing — that have effectively suppressed the economy.  Throughout history recessions, depressions and bear markets were caused by bubbles bursting like Asian currencies, Dotcom companies, US mortgages, and not by intentional government economic restraint.  Government intervention normally supports economic activity.

Along with roughly $1.8 trillion in asset purchases and other stimulus from the Federal Reserve, The US Federal Government has approved and is now implementing the $2.3 trillion CARES Act directly supporting American families, small businesses and larger corporations. An important aspect of the package is the speed that funds will be sent directly to citizens, anticipated to be just a few weeks.  This is critical considering that over 16 million Americans have filed for first-time unemployment assistance in the past three weeks alone.

Taken together, monetary and fiscal policy stimulus surpasses $4 trillion being injected into the American economy which could represent greater than 20% of GDP.  At the same time, large swaths of the US economy remain virtually frozen as COVID-19 infection rates peak.  There is nothing in modern history like this tension between top-down support and restraint to compare and judge an outcome, but in the longer term we believe support will win out. [Chart courtesy S&P and Bloomberg LP © 2020]

WCM Chart of the Week for March 23, 2020

Economists are forecasting in some cases severe contractions in US GDP through the next quarter due to the impact of the COVID-19 virus. We believe that the US economy started decelerating at the beginning of March and it is extremely difficult to estimate the extent of the slowdown. America has likely never before experienced as abrupt an economic disruption. In this week’s chart (table) we have enumerated the National Bureau of Economic Research list of recessions beginning with the Great Depression. The average contraction in GDP since the Great Depression is 5.9% and lasted 13 months. Post WW II in the industrial rebound-fueled era the average contraction was 2.3%, lasting 11 months. Economists’ current forecasts range from declines in GDP growth in the mid-single digits to close to 10% from current quarter to Q2 2020. America has not realized that level of contraction in economic activity for over 70 years.

The American economy is vastly more modern and resilient than in the past and the US Federal Reserve and federal government have pledged as much as $1.7 trillion in monetary and fiscal expenditures to buttress the economy. That extraordinary amount is nearly 8% of nominal GDP. We could experience a sharp rebound as this injection of liquidity stimulates spending, a temporary wealth effect, and pent-up demand stemming from service-sector employees returning to the labor force when this crisis subsides.

A new definition for “systemically important” businesses

At the peak of the Financial Crisis in the stretch from 2007 to 2009, we became familiar with the notion of systemically important institutions. With the failure of major banks and investment banks like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Countrywide and Washington Mutual, the private and public sectors had to come to grips with the idea that for-profit businesses could be so essential to the orderly functioning of the overall capitalist system that they could not be allowed to fail, even if that required the rescue of a public company with taxpayer money. This notion gave rise in part to a series of laws and regulations including the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Certain financial institutions were too important either by virtue of function or size or both to be allowed to fail, undermining confidence and the orderly conduct of our economy and markets. These institutions would be protected, but they would also be more critically regulated to mitigate the risk of failure.

Whether standing in long lines of anxious neighbors to stock up on staples or watching a public address from the White House rose garden, we have been presented with a new and really more fundamental notion of what a systemically important business is. In fact, the shelter-in-place approach to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has created a new class of systemically important businesses as we redefine, on the fly, what used to be luxuries like working from home or having household staples delivered as now being existential.

Through the present market turmoil, it is difficult to see this new order clearly, but in the months and years to come we will collectively be forced to reflect on what we are learning through experience now. There are fundamentals to the orderly functioning of communities and societies that we all know intuitively, and yet we continually fail to prioritize until we are tested. Right now we are sitting at the bottom of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, focusing on physiological and safety needs. That’s health, food, water, shelter, personal security, financial security, and so on. Our current situation is depriving us of the ability to climb further and focus even on social belonging because of the paramount importance of the first two.

We can make light of the run on toilet paper, canned goods and hand sanitizer, but that is as explicit a manifestation as there is of what matters right now – health and hygiene and nutrition. The systemically important are food producers and grocery stores, pharmaceutical companies and pharmacies, hospitals and laboratories. They are also the providers of basic infrastructure, public and private, that keep the lights on, the water flowing, and goods and services moving from point A to point B so we can be home and be socially distant. We are also going to get a graphic look at how fragile the bottom of the economic ladder is where access to basic physiological and safety needs is not assured on a good day much less in the midst of a crisis.

From an investor’s perspective, this will cause a re-rating of securities according to what really matters when we are against the wall. From municipal finance to support hospitals and emergency workers to ownership of companies that are essential to the food supply chain, we will have a renewed and clarified sense of where our investment capital is the most needed and where it should be treated with the highest levels of stewardship and oversight, whether or not it is backstopped by government, because these companies and services are simply too systemically important to fail. And with that, there is an opportunity for companies and for governments to rethink stakeholder rights and responsibilities, and to provide best-in-class transparency and good governance and prioritize quality and longevity over short term rewards.

WCM Chart of the Week for February 10, 2020

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting impressive trends across many demographic categories for several quarters. One of the most important trends we see is development in the female workforce. Total US Labor Market participation reached an impressive 83.1% rate in the key age category of 25-54 year-olds. These levels have not been reached since the pre-crisis era over a decade ago. The real story is gains made by female workers. Women in this demographic have led the overall participation rate, rising from 73.3% in late 2015 to its latest reading of 77%, three times the percentage gain of men in the same category who rose from 88.2% to 89.3% over the same period. Even with this good news, we cannot lose focus on UN SDG #5 (Achieve Gender Equality and Empower All Women and Girls). Women in the US still earn only about 80 cents on the equivalent dollar wage for a man, a gap which expands further for Latinas, black women and women of Native American and Hawai’ian descent. [Chart courtesy Bloomberg LP © 2020, data US BLS]

WCM Chart of the Week for December 6, 2019

This morning the Labor Department announced that payrolls expanded by 266,000 in November, well ahead of estimates.  Just as important, the previous month’s jobs were revised upwards to 156,000 and the unemployment rate matched the 50-year record low of 3.5%.  Average hourly wages also expanded 3.1% signaling that consumers’ wallets are gaining on the overall economy.  Hiring momentum is no doubt strong and is outpacing growth in the labor force.  While this is good for employees currently, continued wage inflation may cut into future corporate profits.  The low inflation environment may make it difficult for companies to raise prices as wage pressures may crowd out margins. [chart courtesy Bloomberg LP (c) 2019]

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