It was worth waiting a couple days to post our chart to see how markets would handicap the new occupant of 10 Downing Street. The British Pound, currently trading at 1.24 US Dollars, is approaching the lows reached after the Brexit referendum vote of June 23, 2016. Britain’s formal deadline to exit from the European Union has been extended to October 31, 2019, and with the newly appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson that deadline could turn out to be firmer than it was perceived to be under May. If Johnson pushes through with a “hard” Brexit, it would likely lead to trade and supply chain disruption, uncertainty regarding the residency status of both UK and EU citizens, and the potential return of a physical border in Northern Ireland. The potential fallout is another headwind facing the struggling UK and EU economies. Given all this uncertainty we would not be surprised to see the Pound head to even lower levels.
